The Probabilities of Positive Detection of Occultation for Stations at the Southern Hemisphere Based on Latest Predictions


Jean Lecacheux (IMCCE, France) wrote:


“The updated nominal path is shifted by 0″.2 or 6000 km south -unfortunately for all the European observers-, and now is predicted from the south tip of South-Africa (near 02:10 UT in early dawn) to south Brazil (near 02:15 UT at low elevation).

In the same time the „one sigma“ uncertainty was lowered to 0.12 Re (i.e. ten times better than before the new astrometry), whilst in consequence the probability of positive detection was boosted greatly.

Now it could reach up to 44 % from Porto Alegre (south Brazil), 40 % from Sao Paulo (Brazil), 37 %  from Cape Town (South-Africa), 14 % from Windhoek (Namibia), 8 % from  Recife (nordeste, Brazil), 1.5 % from Belem (Brazil) at the Amazon mouth…, and will be fully negligible from any place in the northern hemisphere.

Never any occultation by a Kuiper body, Pluto excepted, reached a likehood level so high.”

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